Massachusetts’ Government Forecasting Plan

Description

One element that must be considered while developing a plan is how to forecast. This week you will use information you have already researched in that attachment and build upon and explain forecasting for your entity Massachusetts’ Government Forecasting Plan.

Massachusetts’ Government Forecasting Plan

The State government of Massachusetts makes a forecasting plan for the following financial year based on the current and past factors and in consideration of the expected changes in the near future. The budget forecast in the state is based on the research on economic outlook conducted by Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation. If any issues emerge after making the budget forecast with an impact on the economic outlook, the law makers revise the budget forecast.

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The lawmakers at Boston wrote a budget forecast for the fiscal year 2021 in January 2020. After the spread of Covid-19 disease, however, they revised it in April 2020. Based on the revised budget forecast for the fiscal year 2021, the lawmakers at Boston predicted that the total revenue will fall by $4.4 billion from the consensus revenue estimate of $31.151 billion that was set in January 2020 (Bernsau, 2020). The loss is expected to be caused by decline in expected sales tax by $1.5 billion, withholding taxes by $1.2 billion, capital-gains tax by $780 million and corporate excise tax by $760 million (Bernsau, 2020). The decline is expected to be caused by the impact of Covid-19 disease and other factors such as increase in unemployment rate in the state. During the forecast planning, the law makers identify areas where tax collection is expected to increase or decrease, relative to the previous years. For instance, the law makers in Boston have forecasted an increase in tax revenue from recreational marijuana to around $145.7 million in the fiscal year 2021, up from $22 million in the fiscal year 2019 (Wise, 2020). The law makers predict that tax breaks in 2021 will lead to decline in income tax revenue by $64 million (Wise, 2020). In Massachusetts, some of the forecasts are done for several years ahead Massachusetts’ Government Forecasting Plan.

References

Bernsau, M. W. (2020, May 4). McAnneny op-ed: State budget process must go on. Retrieved 8 August 2020 from

https://www.bizjournals.com/boston/news/2020/05/04/mcanneny-op-ed-state-budget-process-must-go-on.html

Wise, K. (2020, January 16). FY 2021 BUDGET PREVIEW: Revenue Expectations for the FY 2021 State Budget. Retrieved 8 August 2020 from https://www.massbudget.org/report_window.php?loc=FY2021%20Budget%20Preview%20-%20Conensus%20Revenue%20Estimate.html

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